【经济学人精读】技术悲观主义：科技真的使我们的生活变得更好吗？

Technology and society

科技与社会

Pessimism VS. progress

悲观主义VS.科技进步

Contemporary worries about the impact of technology are part of a historical pattern

当代对技术影响的担忧是历史模式的一部分

1. FASTER, CHEAPER, better—technology is one field many people rely upon to offer a vision of a brighter future. But as the 2020s dawn, optimism is in short supply. The new technologies that dominated the past decade seem to be making things worse. Social media were supposed to bring people together. In the Arab spring of 2011 they were hailed as a liberating force. Today they are better known for invading privacy, spreading propaganda and undermining democracy. E-commerce, ride-hailing and the gig economy may be convenient, but they are charged with underpaying workers, exacerbatinginequality and clogging the streets with vehicles. Parents worry that smartphones have turned their children into screen-addicted zombies.

更快、更便宜、更好的科技是许多人赖以寻找一个更光明的未来的领域。但在21世纪20年代即将来临之际，乐观情绪却少之又少。在过去十年中占主导地位的新技术似乎变得更糟了。社交媒体本应使人们走到一起。在2011年的阿拉伯之春，他们被誉为一股解放力量。如今，他们却因为侵犯隐私、传播虚假信息和破坏民主而声名鹊起。电子商务、网约车和零工经济可能很方便，但它们因使得工人工资过低，加剧不平等和交通拥堵而被指责。家长们担心智能手机把他们的孩子变成了沉迷于屏幕的僵尸。

2. The technologies expected to dominate the new decade also seem to cast a dark shadow. Artificial intelligence (AI) may wellentrenchbias and prejudice, threaten your job andshore up authoritarian rulers. Autonomous cars still do not work, but manage to kill people all the same. Polls show that internet firms are now less trusted than the banking industry. At the very moment banks are striving to rebrand themselves as tech firms, internet giants have become the new banks, morphing from talent magnets to pariahs. Even their employees are in revolt.

有望主导下一个十年的科技现在也蒙上了一层阴影。人工智能(AI)很可能会加深偏见，威胁到人们的工作，甚至会被独裁统治者利用。自动驾驶汽车虽然并未真正投入使用，但是仍然可能会对人们造成伤害。民意调查显示，互联网公司现在比银行业更不受信任。就在各大银行努力将自己打造成科技公司的同时，互联网巨头却成为了新的银行，从吸引人才的“磁铁”变成了“贱民”。甚至他们的员工也在反抗。

3. The New York Times sums up the encroaching gloom. “A mood of pessimism”, it writes, has displaced “the idea of inevitable progress born in the scientific and industrial revolutions.” Except those words are from an article published in 1979. Back then the paper fretted that the anxiety was “fed by growing doubts about society’s ability to rein in the seemingly runaway forces of technology”.

《纽约时报》总结了这种蔓延的悲观情绪。报告中写道，“悲观情绪”已经取代了“科学革命和工业革命带来的不可避免的进步”。这句话出自1979年发表的一篇文章。当时，《纽约时报》担心，这种焦虑“源于人们对社会是否有能力控制看似失控的科技力量的怀疑”。

4. Today’s gloomy mood is centered on smartphones and social media, which took off a decade ago. Yet concerns that humanity has taken a technological wrong turn, or that particular technologies might be doing more harm than good, have arisen before. In the 1970s the despondency was prompted by concerns about overpopulation, environmental damage and the prospect of nuclear immolation. The 1920s witnessed a backlashagainst cars, which had earlier been seen as a miraculousanswer to the afflictionof horse-drawn vehicles—which filled the streets with noise and dung, and caused congestion and accidents. And the blight of industrialization wasdecriedin the 19th century by Luddites, Romantics and socialists, who worried (with good reason) about the displacement of skilled artisans, the despoiling of the countryside and the suffering of factory hands toiling insmoke-belching mills.

如今，人们的悲观情绪主要集中在十年前得到迅猛发展的智能手机和社交媒体上。然而，关于人类在技术上走错了方向，或者某些技术可能弊大于利的担忧，在此之前就已经出现了。上世纪70年代，人口过剩、环境破坏和核毁灭的前景引发了人们的担忧，从而导致了这种沮丧情绪。20世纪20年代发生了一场抵制汽车的运动，在此之前，汽车被视为解决马车带来的问题的神奇工具。马车使得街道上充斥着噪音和粪便，造成了交通堵塞和交通事故。19世纪，工业化的衰落遭到了卢德分子、浪漫主义者和社会主义者的谴责，他们有充分的理由对熟练技工的流失、对农村的掠夺以及在浓烟滚滚的工厂里辛勤劳作的工人的痛苦感到担忧。

5. Stand back, and in each of these historical cases disappointment arose from a mix of unrealized hopes and unforeseen consequences. Technology unleashes the forces of creative destruction, so it is only natural that it leads to anxiety; for any given technology its drawbacks sometimes seem to outweighits benefits. When this happens with several technologies at once, as today, the result is a wider sense of techno-pessimism.

退一步来看，在每一个历史案例中，失望都是由未实现的希望和未预见的结果交织而成的。技术释放了创造性破坏的力量，因此它导致焦虑是很自然的；对于任何给定的技术，它的缺点有时似乎超过了它的好处。当这种情况同时发生在几项技术上时，就像如今，结果是一种更广泛的技术悲观主义。

6. However, that pessimism can be overdone. Too often people focus on the drawbacks of a new technology while taking its benefits for granted. Worries about screen time should be weighed against the much more substantial benefits of ubiquitous communication and the instant access to information and entertainment that smartphones make possible. A further danger is that Luddite efforts to avoid the short-term costs associated with a new technology will end up denying access to its long-term benefits—something Carl Benedikt Frey, an Oxford academic, calls a “technology trap”. Fears that robots will steal people’s jobs may prompt politicians to tax them, for example, to discourage their use. Yet in the long run countries that wish to maintain their standard of living as their workforce ages and shrinks will need more robots, not fewer.

然而，这种悲观情绪可能过头了。人们太过频繁地关注一项新技术的缺点，却认为它的好处是理所当然的。对屏幕时间的担忧应该与无处不在的通信以及智能手机带来的即时信息和娱乐带来的更实质性的好处进行权衡。更严重的危险是，勒德分子为避免新技术带来的短期成本而做出的努力，最终将剥夺其长期效益——牛津大学学者卡尔•本尼迪克特•弗雷称之为“技术陷阱”。人们担心机器人会抢走人们的工作，这可能会促使政客们对机器人征税，以阻止它们的使用。然而，从长远来看，随着劳动力的老龄化和萎缩，希望维持生活水平的国家将需要更多机器人。

7. That points to another lesson, which is that the remedy to technology-related problems very often involves more technology. Airbags and other improvements in safety features, for example, mean that in America deaths in car accidents per billion miles travelled have fallen from around 240 in the 1920s to around 12 today. AI is being applied as part of the effort to stem the flow of extremist material on social media. The ultimate example is climate change. It is hard to imagine any solution that does not depend in part on innovations in clean energy, carbon capture and energy storage.

这就引出了另一个教训，即解决技术相关问题通常需要更多的技术。例如，安全气囊和其他安全设施的改进意味着，在美国，每行驶十亿英里的交通事故死亡人数已经从20世纪20年代的240人左右下降到今天的12人左右。人工智能正在被用来阻止极端主义分子在社交媒体上活动。最后一个例子是气候变化。很难想象有什么解决方案不依赖于清洁能源、碳收集和储存方面的创新。

8. The most important lesson is about technology itself. Any powerful technology can be used for good or ill. The internet spreads understanding, but it is also where videos of people being beheadedgo viral. Biotechnology can raise crop yields and cure diseases—but it could equally lead to deadly weapons.

最重要的教训是技术本身。任何强大的技术都可以用于好的方面，也可以用于坏的方面。互联网促进人们之间的相互交流，但是它同时也被人们用来传播砍头视频。生物技术可以提高作物产量，治愈疾病，但同样可以制造致命武器。

9. Technology itself has no agency: it is the choices people make about it that shape the world. Thus thetechlash is a necessary step in the adoption of important new technologies. At its best, it helps frame how society comes to terms with innovations and imposes rules and policies that limit their destructive potential (seat belts,catalytic converters and traffic regulations), accommodate change (universal schooling as a response to industrialization) or strike atrade-off (between the convenience of ride-hailing and the protection of gig-workers). Healthy skepticism means that these questions are settled by a broad debate, not by a coterie of technologists.

技术本身没有能动性：是人们对它的选择塑造了世界。因此，技术鞭策是采用重要新技术的必要步骤。当它被很好的使用的时候，它有助于帮助社会接受创新、实施新规则以限制和减少其破坏力 (安全带,催化转换器和交通规则),适应变化(环球教育应对工业化)或达成交易(保护零工工人利益，促成网约车交易)。健康的怀疑主义意味着这些问题是通过广泛的辩论来解决的，而不是由一群技术专家来解决的。

10. Perhaps the real source of anxiety is not technology itself, but growing doubts about the ability of societies to hold this debate, and come up with good answers. In that sense, techno-pessimism is a symptom of political pessimism. Yet there is something perversely reassuring about this: a gloomy debate is much better than no debate at all. And history still argues, on the whole, for optimism. The technological transformation since the Industrial Revolution has helped curb ancient evils, from child mortality to hunger and ignorance. Yes, the planet is warming and antibiotic resistance is spreading. But the solution to such problems calls for the deployment of more technology, not less. So as the decade turns, put aside the gloom for a moment. To be alive in the tech-obsessed 2020s is to be among the luckiest people who have ever lived.

也许焦虑的真正来源不是技术本身，而是人们越来越怀疑社会是否有能力控制这场争论，并找出好的解决方案。从这个意义上说，技术悲观主义是政治悲观主义的症状。然而，这里面有一种令人不安的安慰：一场悲观的争论总比没有争论强。总的来说，历史仍然为乐观主义辩护。工业革命以来的技术变革有效遏制了各种不幸，包括婴儿死亡、饥饿、无知等。是的，地球正在变暖，抗生素耐药性正在蔓延。但是解决这些问题需要更多的技术部署，而不是更少。因此，在心动的十年即将到来之际，先把悲观情绪放在一边。生活在痴迷科技的21世纪20年代的人，是有史以来最幸运的人。

精读解析

篇章结构

P1—P3：科技带来的各种问题导致关于科技的悲观情绪弥漫。

P4—P5：人们关于科技的担忧早已有之：上世纪七十年代由于人口过剩、环境破坏等导致的沮丧情绪；抵制汽车运动等等；其实，人们对科技的担忧是由于对未来的不确定引起的，这种不确定发生在技术上时，就引起了技术悲观主义。

P6：技术悲观主义有点过头了，可能会导致技术陷阱。

P7—P9：解决技术带来的问题需要更多技术；技术本身并无好坏，关键在于人们如何使用；

P10：虽然技术悲观主义蔓延，但事实是，技术确实给人们带来了好处，人们需要的是更多的技术，而不是更少。

重点单词

in short supply供应不足；缺乏

【例句】

Vaccines were among the drugs most often in short supply.

疫苗是最供不应求的药品之一。

hail /heɪl/ n. 冰雹；致敬；招呼；一阵vt. 招呼；猛发；致敬；向...欢呼；使象下雹样落下

【短语】

hail fellowadj. 友好的,极要好的,很随便的

hail from自…来, 是(某地方的)人

hail someone as sth

hail sth as sth热情赞扬

【例句】

The crowd hailed the new boxing champion.

群众向新的拳击冠军欢呼。

gig economy 零工经济

【例句】

The " gig economy" exemplified by Uber drivers is mushrooming.

以优步为代表的“零工经济”正在迅速成长。

exacerbate /ɪg'zæsəbeɪt/ vt. 使恶化;使加重

【例句】

These tensions are exacerbated between the wars.

这些冲突在两次世界大战期间日益加剧。

entrench/ɪn'tren(t)ʃ/ vt. 用壕沟围绕或保护…；牢固地确立…n. 壕沟;防御设施

【例句】

Many who make it to adulthood face entrenched discrimination that leads to violence.

许多顺利长大的女孩遭受根深蒂固、造成暴力的歧视。

shore up支持，支撑；加固

【例句】

The architects shored up a cabana with wooden beam near the shore.

建筑师们在岸边用木梁支起一座凉亭。

authoritarian/ɔː,θɒrɪ'teərɪən/ adj. 权力主义的,专制的

【例句】

Elsewhere, once-thriving democracies are under attack by regimes which conduct themselves as authoritarian dictatorships, such as in Venezuela.

在其他地方，曾一度兴盛的民主政体正受到实施独裁统治政权的威胁，例如委内瑞拉。

rebrand [ri:'brænd] vt. 给…一个新名称，采用新名称，重塑

【例句】

They are offering a torrent of exhibitions, concerts and other events to rebrand themselves as centres of creativity.  

这里举办无数场展览、音乐会以及其他能重塑其创造力中心地带形象的活动。

morph… from to 从…变到…

【例句】

Sometimes all a room needs is one bold stroke of color for it to morph from dreary to dramatic.   

有时候，所有的房间需要的是一个大胆的色彩中呈现出它形态从沉闷的戏剧性。

pariah /pə'raɪə/ n. 被社会遗弃者；贱民

【例句】

Shortly Tom came upon the juvenile pariah of the village.

不一会儿，汤姆碰上了村里的少年弃儿。

encroach/ɪn'krəʊtʃ/ vi. 侵犯;侵占;侵害；妨碍(正常生活或活动等)；逐渐遍布

【短语】

encroach on

侵犯；蚕食

【例句】

The reporter encroached on my privacy. The desert is gradually encroaching the land.

记者侵犯了我的隐私。/沙漠正逐渐侵蚀着土地。

blight /blaɪt/ n. 枯萎病；荒芜vt. 使…枯萎；破坏

【例句】

And how disadvantage casts a sometimes irreparable blight over people's lives.

那种弱势有时会对人的生命带来无法弥补的摧残。

despondency /dɪ'spɒnd(ə)nsɪ/ n. 失去勇气,失望

【例句】

Strickland was just the man to rise superior to circumstances, when they were such as to occasion despondency in most;

思特里克兰德正是超然于周围环境之外的人，就是在最沮丧的情况下也是如此。

immolation /ˌiməu'leiʃən/ n. 祭物，供奉牲礼；宰杀，祭品

【同根】

immolate vt. 宰杀…作祭品

【例句】

We still do; living in a world in which undeclared aggression, war, hypocrisy, chicanery, anarchy and impending immolation are part of our daily lives, we all want a code to live by.

如今，不宣而战的侵略、战争、虚伪、诈骗、无政府状态以及即将临头的毁灭成了我们日常生活的一部分，我们都希望有一个赖以生存的行为准则。

backlash/'bæklæʃ/ n. 强烈反应, 对抗性反应；后冲, 反撞; 后坐力

【例句】

Some U.S. citizens and longtime residents of Mexico are feeling an anti-Trump backlash.

一些美国公民和长时间在墨西哥生活的美国人感受到了墨西哥反对特朗普的情绪。

affliction /ə'flɪkʃ(ə)n/ n. 折磨；苦恼；苦难

【例句】

The truth is your affliction frightened me.

其实是你的遭遇吓到我了。

miraculous/mɪ'rækjʊləs/ adj. 奇迹般的, 超自然的

【例句】

What happened, miraculously, was nothing-at least nothing lasting.

至少没有产生持久的后果。

decry /dɪ'kraɪ/ vt. 公开反对;谴责

【例句】

Hundreds of thousands of women and supporters took to the streets in the nation's capital and cities around the world to decry President Donald Trump.

在美国首都和其他城市，数十万名妇女和支持者走向街头，公开反对总统唐纳德·特朗普。

smoke-belching烟尘滚滚的

【例句】

He looked out over Sodom and Gomorrah, surveying the whole plain. All he could see was smoke belching from the Earth, like smoke from a furnace.

向所多玛和蛾摩拉与平原的全地观看，不料，那地方烟气上腾，如同烧窑一般。

Three years ago Mr Morales banned imports of the oldest among these smoke-belching jalopies, to cut air pollution and traffic congestion.   

三年前，莫拉莱斯出台禁令禁止进口排放浓烟的旧车以减少空气污染和缓解交通拥堵。

unleash/ʌn'liːʃ/ vt. 把(感情、力量等)释放出来, 发泄

【例句】

Following the ceremony, the latest beta software is unleashed.

仪式结束以后，最新版的软件将会公布。

outweigh/aʊt'weɪ/ vt. 比…重（在重量上）；比…重要；比…有价值

【例句】

He outweighed me by forty pounds.

他比我重四十磅。

ubiquitous/juː'bɪkwɪtəs/ adj. 普遍存在的;无处不在的

【例句】

A surprising number, like the ubiquitous intestinal spirochetes, have no detectable function at all.

许多细菌没有明显的作用，比如无处不在的肠内螺旋体。

behead/bɪ'hed/ vt. 砍(某人的)头;砍头处决

【例句】

And then on January 21,1793,King Louis,the sixteenth,was beheaded by guillotine.

在1793年1月21日，路易十六上了断头台。

go viral疯狂传播；像病毒般扩散；走红

【例句】

How do you make something go viral?

你是如何让一件事情，像病毒一样迅速传播的？

techlashn. 科技抵制潮（《经济学人》中出现的合成词，指对科技巨头如谷歌，脸书的抵制），指的是对（尤其是硅谷的）大型科技公司日益增长的力量和影响力的强烈又广泛的负面反应。

注：这个单词是一个混合词汇，结合了technology（技术）和backlash（反弹、冲击）两个词。该词似乎源自《经济学人》杂志2013年11月的一篇文章标题，正如初始混合词汇中经常看到结合的部分会有连字符，只是后来才固定成单字状态。

catalytic/ˌkætəˈlitik/ adj. 接触反应的

【例句】

The seeds require the catalytic action of water to release heat.

种子需要水的催化作用来散热。

trade-off /'treidɔf,-ɔ:f/ n. 交换,协定,交易,平衡

【例句】

This describes what scientists call trade-off hypothesis.

这就是科学家所说的 “权衡利弊”之说。

coterie/'kəʊt(ə)rɪ/ n. 圈内人；小集团；伙伴；同志

【例句】

a coterie of friends and advisers.

良师益友组成的小圈子。

Fire up the moral engine 点燃道德引擎

antibiotic/ˌæntɪbaɪ'ɒtɪk/ n. 抗生素, 抗菌素adj. 抗生的；抗菌的

【例句】

They are completely resistant to antibiotics.

它们完全能抵御抗生素。

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